I support the president's initiative, which he announced at the G20 summit, and the vice president repeated in his interview with The Economist, but I also want to propose a number of steps. Since peace in Europe can only be after the Ukrainian victory.
Thanks to Yuriy Fedorenko's invitation, yesterday I was able to talk to smart people in UKRINFORM. And, in connection with my painful experience of dealing with Ukrainian government agencies, it seems to me that such a list is important.
- HOW THE UKRAINIAN VICTORY LOOKS SPECIFICALLY
Yesterday, in a discussion, Vladimir Gorbach used an interesting term on the proposal to draw a picture of victory for himself: "false-target programming". If I understood correctly, then by creating the desired world in our imagination, we distance ourselves from reality. I agree with two of the three words he said. This is target programming.. But why is it wrong? Because it doesn't match reality? Yes, it is normal.
Any our desire, project or dream does not coincide with reality. Yes, if you want to live on Mars, this is most likely an impossible goal. However, "target programming" and "narrative regulation" is exactly what we are doing here.
It can become "false" only if there is no chance to turn the wish into reality.
We can and must come up with an image of the Ukrainian victory. Moreover, we must also set the temporal and spatial boundaries of this event. Therefore, if we consider Putin's defeat as a victory for Ukraine, then it has already taken place in the minds of the world's political elites. Now the question is, how much more will we pay to turn this awareness into reality?
First, victory occurs in a metaphysical sense, and then in reality.
- GUARANTEE OF NON-REPETITION OF AGGRESSION AGAINST EUROPE
Russia can continue to exist in any form. But, the state in which she is now categorically does not suit anyone. No matter how the mantra of Western intellectuals "Russians will decide the future of Russia" suits them.
The continuation of the existence of Russia, even if the tsar is replaced by Navalny or Khodorkovsky, will not give anything. Russia must cease to exist as an empire and must be refounded as a decentralized federation with corresponding broad subject rights. In what form it will be - a confederation or a commonwealth of independent states - this is just a question for Russians, Kalmyks, Dagestanis, Chechens, Siberians, Ingremlanders and other peoples. It is their right to become those who control their future. But in the state that it is at the moment, Russia will not remain. And this understanding is part of the picture of the VICTORY of Ukraine.
- HUMAN RIGHTS AND JUSTICE
Thanks to Nobel laureate Alexandra Matviychuk and other Ukrainian experts, a very simple but unshakable idea has been introduced into the media space of the Western world.
The key value of the Western world, to which Ukraine also refers, is the rights of every person. The rights of Ukrainians have been violated, are being violated and will continue to be violated in all the occupied territories. Including in the Crimea. Until these people who suffer oppression and violations of their inalienable rights are released, their rights are not restored, and those responsible for violations and crimes are not punished, we cannot speak of achieving peace or victory. The fight will go on.
- CLAY FEET OF EARS - BELARUS AND CRIMEA
Putin's imperialism stands on two pillars - Crimea and Belarus. Crimea is the core of meanings for Putin's domestic audience. Its loss will mean the destruction, first of all, of the semantic field and the sacredness of the Russian authorities in the minds.
Lukashenka provides the appearance of international legitimation of Putin's actions. In particular, this sycophant putting on a donated ring, just testifies to vassal relations, to which other leaders of countries are in no hurry to resort. Moreover, at the meetings, Emomali Rahmon and Nikol Pashinyan are already gradually dipping Putin in his shit.
Ukraine is obliged to have a clear strategy, both in Crimea and in Belarus. Since in both cases there are allies: Kirimly and Belarusians. If the Crimean platform and expert measurement of the Crimean platform were created for work on Crimea, then there is still no array of expertise on Belarus.
- FEDERAL REGIONS
A very difficult question. President of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov is completely submissive to Putin and supports the so-called "SVO". Members of the United Russia party make up the majority in the leadership of Tatarstan. However, now Minnikhanov is fighting to maintain his status, which Putin is trying to take away by violating the social contract between the Kremlin and Kazan.
We benefit from the success of Minnikhanov and the widest possible autonomy of Tatarstan as a subject of the federation. Does this mean that we could negotiate with Minnikhanov? Does this mean that we should negotiate with people like him in other regions to encourage them to refuse to obey every Kremlin order, in particular about mobilization?
Ukraine needs work strategies for each Russian region. The same as for Belarus and Crimea.
- NUCLEAR SAFETY IN EUROPE AND THE WORLD
How many warheads does Putin have in total? And how many are employed? And how much nuclear material in warheads has already reached its half-life and is no longer dangerous? And where is it all stored and who has physical control over the places of storage? And what about the triad and how are managerial connections built?
All these are questions of military intelligence, which I would not want to get into. But the strategy of denuclearizing Russia is an integral part of the overall vision of victory. Even if this goal is not achievable, let's sit down and consider what exactly we are talking about.
- ECONOMIC PRESSURE STRATEGY
The 10th EU sanctions package is already in the works. The arrays of information on sanctions are already unbearable. And we still do not have a system of understanding which sectors of the Russian economy are priorities for us in creating massive pressure on them?
When everything happens chaotically and in manual control, it's easy enough to "cheat" Russian passengers who want to ride for free.
Sanctions against the Russian Federation must be tied to free elections in the subjects of the federation in the next electoral cycle and with the new electoral legislation. Until fair elections are held in the subjects, no sanctions can be lifted.
- GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE WEAKENING OF THE KREMLIN
The West must support not only Ukraine, but also the Ukrainian victory. However, Western countries also have many questions and nuances, what will happen to the regions of the Caucasus and Central Asia after the center of gravity in the form of the Kremlin disappears?
So, for example, Emmanuel Macron has a rather painful conflict with Erdogan and Aliyev, including over Armenia. Sometimes the conflict is used even in France's internal political agenda. At least two former French presidential candidates have visited Armenia.
And there are hundreds of such questions.. Of course, the key one is the China strategy.
We need to: a) convince the West that the Russian territory will not turn into a black hole, and in fact it is a black hole; b) find a vision of how the situation will not be used by China for its own massive strengthening in several regions at once.
An almost impossible task. But it also needs to be addressed.
- WORKING WITH EVERY TARGET AUDIENCE FOR THE UKRAINIAN VICTORY
We are not given weapons for certain reasons. Sometimes it's a lack of political or real ability. And sometimes it is a refusal to work with the uncertainty that will come with the weakening of the Kremlin's center of influence.
Everyone is afraid of the weakening of the Kremlin. For no one knows what the weakening of the Kremlin could result in. Therefore, Macron continues to insist that Putin is a criminal, but the Kremlin needs to be given security guarantees. Macron is generally quite strange. But I don't have any others for you.
The European Union allocated 6 billion euros in this dew for rearmament. Not such a big amount. But it must be explained that removing the problem with the hands of the Ukrainians (giving them weapons) will be cheaper and longer-term than financing their own armed forces and waiting for Putin to attack somewhere else anyway.
We need segmented communication strategies with Western political elites to convince them that the uncertainty of a Ukrainian victory is better for them than the certainty of a crisis.
- FOLLOWING THE RELIGIOUS CANONS OF VALERY ZALUZHNY
In his interview in The Economist, the commander-in-chief said what kind of actions against the invaders in the Armed Forces of Ukraine are practiced as a religion. Facebook actively bans for quoting these words, so I won't do it. But you figured it all out.
The needs for weapons expressed by the Commander-in-Chief must be satisfied. Western countries must provide weapons for victory. But in order for them to decide to do this, we must complete the 9 previous steps so that they stop being afraid of the weakening of the Kremlin and believe that without the Russian empire, the world will become better and safer.