ISW predicts the release of the right bank of the Kherson region before the end of the year

10:30 25 October Kyiv, Ukraine

Russian troops are not completely withdrawn from the upper part of the Kherson region, however, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will probably be able to take control of the right bank of the Kherson region before the end of this year.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
"Russian troops are probably preparing to defend the city of Kherson and are not completely withdrawing from the right bank of the Kherson region, despite preliminary confirmed reports of the withdrawal of some parts of the group, " the report says.
According to analysts, the words of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, that Russian troops are not retreating from Kherson, but are preparing the city for urban battles, are consistent with what ISW observed at the end of October.

The Institute noted that recent reports of Russian military operations in Kherson do not always draw a sufficiently clear distinction between operations in Kherson and operations in the western part of the Kherson region as a whole.

According to ISW, Russian troops began a partial withdrawal from the north-west of the Kherson region while preparing for the defense of Kherson. At the time of this report, they have not yet begun a complete withdrawal of troops from the city or region.
"However, the Russian position in the upper Kherson region is probably untenable, and Ukrainian forces are likely to capture the upper Kherson region before the end of 2022.. A Russian military blogger said the Russian surrender of Kherson is overdue as an attempt to hold the city is likely to lead to defeat.
Other ISW findings:
  • The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Ukrainian forces captured Karmazinovka, Myasozharovka and Nevskoe in the Luhansk region and Novosadovo in the Donetsk region.
  • Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin acknowledged the slow pace of Wagner's ground operations around Bakhmut as Russian forces continued to lose ground near the town.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to strike concentrations of Russian troops near the front line in the Zaporozhye region on 23–24 October, and on 22 October they attacked concentrations of Russian troops and equipment near Energodar.
  • Occupation administration officials shut down communications systems in Kherson in an attempt to limit civilian reports of Russian positions to Ukrainian forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian offensive.