Decrease in Ukraine's GDP fell to 35-40% - NBU

20:56 15 June Kyiv, Ukraine

Ukraine's economic indicators are gradually recovering. The largest decline was recorded in March, and in May, compared to last year, the decline in GDP slowed down to 35-40%.

This was announced by Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Serhiy Nikolaychuk at a workshop with foreign investors.
"According to the NBU, in March, GDP fell by 44%, and in May the decline was reduced to 35-40%," Nikolaychuk said.

The deputy head of the National Bank noted that one can rely only on indirect data to estimate GDP.

Speaking about inflation, which reached 18% in May on an annualized basis, Nikolaychuk noted that it is largely determined by the disruption of supply chains and problems with logistics. Inflation is highest in the southern regions of Ukraine, which are partially occupied, while in the western regions it is the lowest and, in fact, very close to the inflation rate in neighboring countries.

Deputy head of the NBU estimated inflation expectations of the population at about 20%. According to him, this was one of the arguments for raising the discount rate from 10% immediately to 25% in order to ensure positive real rates and reduce inflationary pressure.

Recall that the GDP of Ukraine, according to the State Statistics Service, in the first quarter of 2022 fell by 15.1% compared to the first quarter of 2021.

The World Bank predicts a decline in the Ukrainian economy this year by 45.1%, the National Bank has so far refrained from making precise estimates, but states that the decline will be less than 30%.

The nominal volume of GDP last year amounted to about 200 billion dollars.